Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.