A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
