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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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