Everyday Murders in the nation Decline 37% Under President Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics
The typical number of daily murders per month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent administrative data. But, public safety analysts have advised that murder data could fail to indicate better national stability.
Marked Reduction in Per-Day Figures
Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September. This information was delivered by the director of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.
“The figures in homicides that have been recorded in these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that the previous month the smallest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.
Historical Background and Government Strategy
Intense organized crime rivalries, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised operations to take on the cartels, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in the past few years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.
That gave Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than the US. However, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an apparently more pronounced reduction in homicides this year.
At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”
The key pillars of the President's safety plan include:
- Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
- Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
- Increased collaboration between government agencies.
Expert Caution and Statistical Concerns
Nevertheless, public safety analysts cautioned that using homicide data to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is notably true considering the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.
“This would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”
According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.
“Numbers on murders is no longer useful for gauging the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to correctly identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”
Vargas noted that using monthly means of daily killings was additionally problematic because it might mask days when there were notably high levels of killings.
“Relying on the per-day mean makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he said.
Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress
An area where the administration can cite the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.
“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” commented Vargas.
Ongoing Violence and Public Anger
However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still beset by severe violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.
Weeks after, thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their frustration at graft and cartel violence.
“The government presents [data] in a way to create a story of safety. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst remarked.